This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4. The adaptive learning...

How to sample training/validation data is an important question for machine learning models, especially when the dataset is heterogeneous and skewed. In this paper, we propose a data sampling method that robustly selects training/validation data. We formulate the training/validation data...