People often form mental models based on incomplete information, revising them as new relevant data becomes available. In this paper, we experimentally investigate how individuals update their models when data on predictive variables are gradually revealed. We find that people's models tend to...

People often form mental models based on incomplete information, revising them as new relevant data becomes available. In this paper, we experimentally investigate how individuals update their models when data on predictive variables are gradually revealed. We find that people's models tend to...

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...

Using spatial Poisson processes, we re-interpret the Imitation Dynamics and show how the spatial clustering of players affects both the selection of strategies and the speed by which they replicate. We find that the more clustered are the players, (a) the faster the evolution of strategies and...

We study long-run learning in an experimental Cournot game with no explicit information about the payoff function. Subjects see only the quantities and payoffs of each oligopolist after every period. In line with theoretical predictions and previous experimental findings, duopolies and...

We explore the stability of imitation in a 1,200-period experimental Cournot game where subjects do not know the payoff function but see the output quantities and payoffs of each oligopolist after every period. In line with theoretical predictions and previous experimental findings, our...