We develop optimal formulations for nonlinear autoregressive models by representing them as linear autoregressive models with time-varying temporal dependence coefficients. We propose a parameter updating scheme based on the score of the predictive likelihood function at each time point. The...

We develop a nonlinear state-space model that captures the joint dynamics of consumption, dividend growth, and asset returns. Our model consists of an economy containing a common predictable component for consumption and dividend growth and multiple stochastic volatility processes. The...

The Bernoulli and Poisson are two popular discrete count processes; however, both rely on strict assumptions that motivate their use. We instead propose a generalized count process (the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson process) that not only includes the Bernoulli and Poisson processes as special cases,...

We study the exclusionary properties of nonlinear price-quantity schedules in an Aghion-Bolton style model with elastic demand and product differentiation. We distinguish three regimes depending on whether and how the price of the incumbent good is linked to the quantity purchased from the rival...

We adapt the exclusion model of Choné and Linnemer (2014) to reflect the notion that dominant firms are unavoidable trading partners. In particular, we introduce the share of the buyer's demand that can be addressed by the rival as a new dimension of uncertainty. Nonlinear price-quantity...

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the behavior of participation rates in terms of gender differences. We employed smooth autoregressive transition models for the quarterly Turkish labor force participation rates (LFPR) data between 2000: Q1-2011: Q4 to present an...

We use top income data and the newly developed regime switching Gaussian mixture vector autoregressive model to explain the dynamics of income inequality in developed economies during the last 100 years. Our results indicate that the process of income inequality consists of two equilibriums...

The paper studies inference in nonlinear models where identification loss presents in multiple parts of the parameter space. For uniform inference, we develop a local limit theory that models mixed identification strength. Building on this non-standard asymptotic approximation, we suggest robust...

A medium-scale nonlinear DSGE model is estimated (54 variables, 29 state variables, 7 observed variables). The model includes stock market. RMSE of in sample and out of sample forecasts are calculated. The nonlinear DSGE model with measurement errors outperform AR(1), VAR(1), linearized DSGE in...

Private wealth holdings are likely to become an increasingly important determinant in the job exit decision of elderly workers. Net wealth may correlate with worker's characteristics that also determine the exit out of a job. It is therefore important to include a rich set of observed...