Optimal nominal interest rate rules are usually set assuming that the underlying world is linear. In this paper we consider the performance of optimal rules when the underlying relationship between inflation and the output gap may be nonlinear. In particular if the inflation-output trade off...

We develop a forecasting model of GDP growth that features regime-switching behavior and an error-correction mechanism (ECM). Regime changes are manifested in the behavior of a stochastic regime drift component that moves between expansionary and contractionary phases, thus generating cycles in...

A simple approach is presented for the modeling of complex oscillatory thermal-fluid systems capable of converting low grade heat into useful work. This approach is applied to the NIFTE, a novel low temperature difference heat utilization technology currently under development. Starting from a...

This work developed a novel framework for considering wavelet denoising in linear perturbation models (LPMs) and simple linear models (SLMs). Rainfall and runoff time series data were decomposed using wavelet transforms to acquire approximate and detailed rainfall and runoff signals,...