The steadily growing access to high-quality spatio-temporal crime count data with a high level of spatial detail allows to uncover interesting relationships between crime types within and between small regional units. Data coherent forecasting of such counts has to take the integer and...

This paper estimates a model of the real exchange rate including standard fundamentals as well as two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) over the period January 1993-July 2019. Both a benchmark linear...

We prove the well-posedness results, i.e. existence, uniqueness, and stability, of the solutions to a class of nonlocal fully nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs), where there is an external time parameter $t$ on top of the temporal and spatial variables $(s,y)$ and thus the...

Private wealth holdings are likely to become an increasingly important determinant in the job exit decision of elderly workers. Net wealth may correlate with worker's characteristics that also determine the exit out of a job. It is therefore important to include a rich set of observed...

Implications of nonlinearity, nonstationarity and misspecification are considered from a forecasting perspective. Our model allows for small departures from the martingale difference sequence hypothesis by including a nonlinear component, formulated as a general, integrable transformation of the...

The object of research: The object of research is modeling and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes presented in the form of time-series data.Investigated problem: There are several popular approaches to solving the problems of adequate model constructing and forecasting nonlinear...

In applications, the linear multiple regression model is often modified to allow for nonlinearity in an independent variable. It is argued here that in practice it may often be desirable to specify a Bayesian prior that the unknown functional form is "simple" or "uncomplicated" rather than to...