We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...

Through the experiences of the Great 1994 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake and The Great 2011 (Higashi-Nihon) East Japan Earthquake, it has been important for Japanese local Government to build a comprehensive evacuation program on a large earthquake occurrence in near future. According to the experts'...

Traffic congestion contributes to longer travel times and increased travel time variability. We account for the dynamic nature of travellers' choices, by deriving a closed-form solution for the costs of travel time variability. The resulting travel delay cost function is linear in the mean...

This paper employs a recent statistical algorithm (CRAGGING) in order to build an early warning model for banking crises in emerging markets. We perturb our data set many times and create "artificial" samples from which we estimated our model, so that, by construction, it is flexible enough to...

We show FC-MNL is flexible in the sense of Diewert (1974), thus its parameters can be chosen to match a well-defined class of possible own- and cross-price elasticities of demand. In contrast to models such as Probit and Random Coefficient-MNL models, FC-MNL does not require estimation via...

The random parameters logit model for aggregate data introduced by Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) has been a driving force in empirical industrial organization for more than a decade. While these models are identified in theory, identification problems often occur in practice. In this paper...

Savings in Ghana have generally being described as low in terms of the number of households who save, trends in amounts of savings and the attitude towards savings. This called for the examination of factors that motivate household heads to save in the Bole District of Ghana. A total of 120...

The paper tests the effectiveness of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) as harbingers of banking crises, using multivariate logit models to see whether FSIs, broad macroeconomic indicators, and institutional indicators can indeed predict crisis occurrences. The analysis draws upon a data set...