To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form...

This paper addresses problems of calibration and estimation of a parameter, p{sub o}, in high level neutron coincidence counting (HLNC) measurement. The presentation begins with a deductive approach, based on the generally accepted physical equations which are satisfied by the total and...

Measurement error modeling is a statistical approach to the estimation of unknown model parameters which takes into account the measurement errors in all of the data. Approaches which ignore the measurement errors in so-called independent variables may yield inferior estimates of unknown model...

MARKAL-MACRO is an experiment in model linkage for energy and economy analysis. This new tool is intended as an improvement over existing methods for energy strategy assessment. It is designed specifically for estimating the costs and analyzing the technologies proposed for reducing...

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Propane Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in...

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Distillate Market Model (DMM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in...

The purpose of this paper is to document the results of our application of the Edmonds-Reilly Model (ERM) using several scenarios provided for an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) project comparing global models. Because the output of this exercise is data-rich, most...

It is becoming increasingly clear, at least on a theoretical level, that modelers of the potential impacts of climate change must impose that change upon the world as it will be configured sometime in the future rather than confine their attention to considerations of what would happen to the...

In this paper a methodology for analytically estimating the response of replacement components in a system subjected to worst-case hostile shocks is presented. This methodology does not require the use of system testing but uses previously compiled shock data and inverse dynamic analysis to...

This paper deals with the effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on market outcomes for SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices and on electric utility compliance choices. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) provide about twice as many SO{sub 2} allowances to be issued per year in Phase I...