Distinct treatment of uncertainty and interindividual variability in variates used to model risk ensures that quantitative assessments of these attributes in modeled risk are maximally relevant to potential regulatory concerns. For example, such a distinction is required for quantitative...

With the ratification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT), there has been increased interest in lowering the nuclear test ban threshold from its present level of 150 kilotons and much debate about what this lower threshold should be. The uncertainties associated with verifying the TTBT,...

Electric utilities face a variety of uncertainties that complicate their long-term resource planning and acquisition. These uncertainties include future economic and load growths, fuel prices, environmental regulations, economic regulations, performance and construction cost of existing power...

This report summarizes some challenges associated with the use of computational science to predict the behavior of complex phenomena. As such, the document is a compendium of ideas that have been generated by various staff at Sandia. The report emphasizes key components of the use of...

Current practice uses statistical tests to determine whether seasonal factors should be applied in a given forecasting situation. Research suggests that an optimal policy might lie somewhere between using full seasonal factors and using no seasonal factors on series. This research proposes and...

The disposal of the waste stored in single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site is recognized as a major environmental concern. A comprehensive program has been initiated to evaluate the various alternatives available for disposal of these wastes. Theses wastes will be disposed of in a manner...

1991 was continued rapid growth for the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) as it broadened its interdisciplinary research into the organization, evolution and operation of complex systems and sought deeply the principles underlying their dynamic behavior. Research on complex systems--the focus of work at...

The present report summarizes recent progress on the Phase I effort during the period January 1, 1994 through March 30, 1994. This report summarizes progress to date in refining the existing analytical models implemented in the IECM. In this report, the authors described the development of...

A simple model is used to analyze the performance of a system for verifying compliance with an arms control treaty. Blue and Red are partners in to a treaty. Blue prefers to comply, but is uncertain whether Red similarly prefers compliance (in the absence of threatened violation detection)....

In a recent paper, Starr and Segalman demonstrated that any Masing model can be represented as a parallel-series Iwan model. A preponderance of the constitutive models that have been suggested for simulating mechanical joints are Masing models, and the purpose of this discussion is to...