Актуальность темы исследования: Прогнозирование макроэкономических показателей является одним из основных элементов макроэкономической политики и выполняет...

In this paper we develop a dynamic regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Honduras that incorporates regional disaggregated sectors for agriculture. We undertook this research to address two pressing policy concerns in Honduras. First, what growth strategy should the country...

This paper investigates the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy over the period 1970-2012 by using four alternative proxies for financial development and several techniques including unit root tests, the co-integration test, the Granger Causality...

This paper presents the non-behavioral module of EconLav, a new microsimulation model of the Italian tax-benefit system which is coordinated by ISFOL with the support of the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of Labor. First, we describe a number of data quality issues which often...

In a simple macro-finance term structure (MFTS) model with macroeconomic variables as risk factors, it matters little whether an econometrician has a strong prior on a particular macroeconomic model. I show in a Monte Carlo experiment that econometricians with drastically different priors will...

People often wonder why economists analyze models whose assumptions are known to be false, while economists feel that they learn a great deal from such exercises. We suggest that part of the knowledge generated by academic economists is case-based rather than rule-based. That is, instead of...

We measure the performance of Multi Model Inference (MMI) forecasts compared to predictions made from a single model for crude oil prices. We forecast the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices using total OECD petroleum inventory levels, surplus production capacity, the CBOE...

Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia nel periodo 1984-2003. Il modello si compone di due equazioni: prestiti per l'acquisto di abitazioni e altri prestiti alle famiglie (tipicamente credito al consumo e finanziamenti in conto...

Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico del credito bancario alle imprese in Italia per il periodo 1988-2004. I prestiti bancari sono espressi in funzione del rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (che approssima il fabbisogno di finanziamenti esterni),...

This paper examines the role of Capesize vessels in freight markets by proposing a continuous-time freight rate model based on the functional supply and demand curves. The model incorporates the market participant trading behavior in that high Capesize prices induce shipowners and charterers to...