This is an examination of VAR modeling used to generate expectations for forward-looking variables in the Federal Reserve's macro-economic model FRB/US. Aside from analyzing economic as well aseconometric properties of VAR models currently in use, this paper evaluates certain improvements to...

In industrial applications it is quite common to use stochastic volatility models driven by semi-martingale Markov volatility processes. However, in order to fit exactly market volatilities, these models are usually extended by adding a local volatility term. Here, we consider the case of...

This paper uses the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach to determine the annual size and growth of the hidden economy in Jordan for the period 1980-2018. We find that the key causal variables of the hidden economy in Jordan are: female labor force participation, the inflation...

Top-down CGE models are used to assess the economic impacts of climate change policies. However, these models do not represent the technologies and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as detailed as bottom-up energy system models. Linking a top-down CGE model with a bottom-up energy system model...

Model selection is a critical step in model development and brings with it a significant level of model risk. This analysis considers a real-world example and compares the forecasts and uncertainties of three possibilities: the model selected as best, the best ensemble and the model not...