The paper presents the general outline and the most important results from an econometric model MODROL, developed by the authors, for analyzing and forecasting the impact from the instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community on the Polish agricultural sector. The basic...

State space models play an important role in macroeconometric analysis and the Bayesian approach has been shown to have many advantages. This paper outlines recent developments in state space modelling applied to macroeconomics using Bayesian methods. We outline the directions of recent...

I derive two valid forecasting models of the equity premium in monthly frequency, based on little more than no-arbitrage: A "predictability timing" version of partial least squares, given that predictability is theoretically time-varying; and a least squares model with realized market premiums...

This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate...

This paper discusses how forecasts are affected by the use of real-time data rather than latest-available data. The key issue is this: In the literature on developing forecasting models, new models are put together based on the results they yield using the data set available to the model's...

The purpose of this paper is to construct a structural macroeconomic model to design monetary and fiscal policies aimed at attaining macroeconomic objectives. The study further attempts to simulate a baseline and policy scenario to evaluate the impact of such monetary and fiscal policy...