1. Identify unanticipated shocks in foreign aid. 2. Examining how macroeconomic stability constraints foreign aid and hinders the drives of growth. Vector Auto-regression Model 1. Estimates of the innovations of foreign aid shocks to macroeconomic variables shocks generates inconsistencies that...

From the late 70s onwards, the literature has produced numerous studies, mostly for developing countries, relating exports and economic growth. Since several European Union (EU) countries face strong recessions in the sequence of the economic crisis and the related fiscal consolidation measures,...

Demographic change challenges the economy in many ways. The impact on pension systems, health care, labour force etc. has already been widely analysed. An ageing population directly increases the number of retired persons, the need for nursing places and the contribution rates for social...

Favorable period of 2000-2007 years with a high rates of GDP growth in Kazakhstan after the global economic crisis was replaced by a period of its moderate growth. According to estimates of monetary policy rules the National Bank of Kazakhstan concentrated focus on inflation targeting after the...

Based on the Krugman (1991) model, the aim of this study is to analyse whether the adoption by Portugal of an exchange rate target zone regime in the context of the participation of the Portuguese escudo in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS), allowed the...

This paper aims to illustrate how weight matrices that are needed to construct foreign variable vectors in Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models can be estimated jointly with the GVAR's parameters. An application to real GDP and consumption expenditure price inflation as well as a...

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...

This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap...

This paper aims to illustrate how weight matrices that are needed to construct foreign variable vectors in Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models can be estimated jointly with the GVAR's parameters. An application to real GDP and consumption expenditure price inflation as well as a...

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...