Modeling and forecasting volatility of a financial time series has become a very prominent area for research last few years. These models provide precise estimate of conditional variance process and make a good forecast of future volatility that may help the stakeholders in obtaining efficient...

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...

In 1944 Franco Modigliani published a famous article summarizing the Keynesian model; in 1963 he extended the 1944 framework. This paper,written for a conference in honor of Modigliani, asks how the earlier papers would be modified in the light of recent developments in macroeconomics. The...

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be...

We examine the growth promoting roles of R&D, international R&D spillovers, and trade in a world econometric model. A country can raise its total factor productivity by investing in R&D. But countries can also boost their productivity by trading with other countries that have large stocks of...

This paper summarizes the results of an empirical study of alternative international monetary arrangements using a multicountry, rational expectations, econometric model of the G-7 countries; Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The model is fit to...

Recent analyses of the gains to policy coordination have focussed on the strategic aspects of macroeconomic policy making in a static setting. A major theme is that noncooperative policy making is likely to be Pareto inefficient because of the presence of beggar-thy-neighbor policies. This paper...

We develop and test a model of joint determination of the rate of economic growth and the results of presidential and Congressional elections in the United States. In our model, economic agents and voters have rational expectations. Economic policy varies as a function of control of the White...

I study positively and normatively the role of bank heterogeneity in the macroeconomy. I build an empirically-motivated macroeconomic model with a banking sector that features uninsurable idiosyncratic rate of return shocks, endogenous markups, costly default, and endogenous entry. The framework...

This paper makes use of the simulation results of 12 leading large international econometric models, as to the effects of commonly specified changes in monetary and fiscal policy, conducted under the Brookings exercise "Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies." The first half of...