While the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on the Philippine economy have been widely chronicled, there has not been an effort at an ex-post quantification of the pandemic's impacts using counterfactual analysis. This paper aims to fill this gap. Using a modified version of the PIDS small...

This paper presents a small macroeconomic model for a small and open economy, which allows for an overall assessment and analysis of the state of the economy throughout the business cycle, as well as of its long-term trends. The model is estimated using a combination of Bayesian estimation...

In this paper, we link a CGE model with the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD for Latvia. The model linkage is done using an iterative top-down bottomup approach, ensuring the convergence of changes in disposable income, employment and wage in both models. We also incorporate the...

This paper studies wage-price dynamics in the context of a disequilibrium macro model where there are two Phillips (PC) curves, a wage PC and price PC. We adapt this framework but introduce a Kaldorian delay effect in wage dynamics whereby output and sales predate wage dynamics. Though along...

We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...

1. General Introduction -- 2. Dynamics in Econometrics -- 3. Estimating the Model -- 4. Testing the Model -- 5. Non-Stationarity and Cointegration -- 6. Specifying the ARDL Model -- 7. Vector Autoregressions -- 8. Panel Data Models -- 9. Non-Stationary Panels -- 10. The Binary Qualitative Model.