The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate...

This Strategic Analysis paper provides an analysis of the medium-term forces behind economic growth since 1980, showing that the authors' previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a...

The difficulty of conducting relevant experiments has long been regarded as the central challenge to learning about the economy from data. The standard solution, going back to Haavelmo's famous quot;The Probability Approach in Econometricsquot; (1944), involved two elements: first, it placed...

In this paper, we explore the role of labor markets for monetary policy in the euro area in a New Keynesian model in which labor markets are characterized by search and matching frictions. We first investigate to which extent a more flexible labor market would alter the business cycle behaviour...

This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this...

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small...

In spite of the increasing sophistication and power of commercial spreadsheetpackages, we still lack a formal theory of spreadsheets and a methodology thataids their construction and maintenance. Using a new functional relationallanguage, this paper identifies four principal components that...

This paper addresses the classification of linked entities. Weintroduce a relational vector (VS) model (in analogy to theVS model used in information retrieval) that abstracts the linkedstructure, representing entities by vectors of weights. Givenlabeled data as background knowledge training...

This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal...

Die Arbeitsmarktpolitik benötigt für die Gestaltung der Zukunft wissenschaftlich begründete Vorhersagen und Projektionen über mögliche Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Dieses Buch enthält eine ausführliche Dokumentation des im IAB verwendeten makroökonomischen IAB/INFORGE-Modells...