This chapter describes the recently developed policy evaluation techniques. It focuses on discrete time stochastic models and on relating the policy evaluation methods to the geometric approach commonly used in theoretical continuous time models. The exposition centers on a number of specific...

The methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of econometric models are discussed in this chapter. The use of these methods should allow to decide upon the model that best approximates the true structure of the economy and how much confidence to place on the predictions from a given model....

This chapter discusses the criteria for the selection of functional forms and compatibility of the criteria for the selection of functional forms. In the discussion of functional forms, examples are drawn largely from the empirical analyses of production and consumer demand, because the...

1. Introduction -- 1.1 References -- 2. Some Remarks on Econometric Model Building -- 2.1 References -- 3. Prediction-Oriented Estimation Methods for the Canonical Disequilibrium Model -- 3.1 References -- 4. Investment in Residential Construction -- 4.1 Introductory Remarks -- 4.2 Demand for...

I: Analysis of Trade Linkages and Exchange Rate Determination -- 1. Modelling Bilateral Sectoral Trade Flows -- 2. Product Availability, Price Discrimination and Interdependent Import Flows -- 3. Exchange Rate Expectations and Current and Balances in the OECD INTERLINK System -- 4. The...

1. Macroeconometric Models with Quantity Rationing -- 1.1. Non-Walrasian Economic Concepts -- 1.2. A Reference Macroeconomic Model -- 1.3. A Theoretical Framework for the Study of Structural Changes -- 1.4. The Problems in Specifying a Macroeconometric Model with Quantity Rationing -- 1.5. A...

1: The Linkage System -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Some Conventions -- 1.3 Elements of a World Trade Linkage Model -- 1.4 Methods of Trade Linkage -- 1.5 A Sluice -- Footnotes to Chapter 1 -- 2: Import Allocation Models -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Theoretical Considerations -- 2.2.4 The adding-up...