Hidden Markov models have been applied in many different fields during the last decades, including econometrics and finance. However, the lion’s share of the investigated models is Markovian mixtures of Gaussian distributions. We present an extension to conditional t-distributions, including...

We examine price discovery in the Credit Default Swap and corporate bond market. By using a Markov switching framework we are able to analyze the dynamic behavior of the information shares during tranquil and crisis periods. The results show that price discovery takes place mostly on the CDS...

We examine price discovery in the Credit Default Swap and corporate bond market. By using a Markov switching framework we are able to analyze the dynamic behavior of the information shares during tranquil and crisis periods. The results show that price discovery takes place mostly on the CDS...

Using survey expectations data and a variant of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP), this paper evaluates the relationship between interest rates and investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. This study therefore is related to the forward premium puzzle and the...

We examine two issues in business cycle research. We first compare the performance of Hamilton’s Markov-Switching (MS) model and the Bry and Boschan algorithm in replicating the US business cycle features. A number of studies, especially Harding and Pagan, have demonstrated that Hamilton’s...