To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis....

We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a...

While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and...

In this paper we analyze eight years of employment data of a regional grocery store chain in the U.S. The data include job titles, wage rates, and earnings for all employees. We examine initial job assignments, mobility between departments, and mobility into supervisory and management positions...

This paper analyzes the role of contagion in the currency crises in emerging markets during the 1990s. It employs a non-linear Markov-switching model to conduct a systematic comparison and evaluation of three distinct causes of currency crises: contagion, weak economic fundamentals, and...

Markow switching models with time-varying means, variances and mixing weights are applied to charakterize business cycle variation in the probability distribution and higher order moments of stock returns. This allows us to provide a comprehensive characterization of risk that goes well beyond...

We test whether the relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the news in its underlying fundamentals has non-linear features. In order to do so, we develop a Markov switching model and apply it to a sample of low and high inflation countries. The empirical analysis shows that for the...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

We examine the nonlinear one-step forward-looking model, in which the current state is a function of the (subjective) expected value of a nonlinear function of the state next period. Stationary Markov Sunspot Equilibria (SSEs) are known to exist near an indeterminate steady state, i.e. when the...

This article assesses the impact of unconventional monetary policies and sheds light on their transmission mechanism in the United States. Using a three-variable Markov switching factor-augmented vector autoregression (MS-FAVAR) with time-varying transition probabilities and a shadow short-term...