Building on the success of Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) in separately forecasting the return components of the stock market, this paper examines the links between economic regimes and these components to predict the aggregate U.S. stock market. We propose a three-step methodology that we call...

Building on the success of Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) in separately forecasting the return components of the stock market, this paper examines the links between economic regimes and these components to predict the aggregate U.S. stock market. We propose a three-step methodology that we call...