In this paper models for claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a...

The concept of first-order stochastic dominance defined on distributions is inadequate in models with learning. We extend this concept to the space of distributions on distributions. We discuss conditions under which for all common observations one person's beliefs (over a set of probability...

The three-door problem is an example of a systematic violation of a key rationality postulate that has attracted much attention. In this seemingly simple individual decision task, most people initially fail to apply correctly Bayes' Law, and to make the payoff-maximizing choice. Previous...

This paper shows how one can compute option prices from a Bayesian inference viewpoint, using a GARCH model for the dynamics of the volatility of the underlying asset. The proposed evaluation of an option is the predictive expectation of its payoff function. The predictive distribution of this...