Different types of natural events hit the United States every year. The data of natural hazards from 1900 to 2016 in the US shows that there is an increasing trend in annul natural disaster losses after 1980. Climate change is recognized as one of the factors causing this trend, and predictive...

Quantitative investment strategies are often selected from a broad class of candidate models estimated and tested on historical data. Standard statistical techniques to prevent model overfitting such as out-sample backtesting turn out to be unreliable in situations when the selection is based on...

This paper develops a two-stage statistical analysis to identify and assess the effect of a sample bias associated with an individual's household role. Survey responses to questions about the respondent's role in household finances and a sampling design in which some households have all members...

Did the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (QE) in the aftermath of the financial crisis have macroeconomic effects? To answer this question, we estimate a large-scale DSGE model over the sample from 1998 until 2020, including data of the Fed's balance sheet. We allow for QE to affect the...

This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the...

This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...

This paper reports on a preregistered study aimed at testing for executive function differences across individuals who self-reported one of four distinct dietary patterns: No Diet, No Sugar, Vegetarian, and Mediterranean Diet patterns. The incentivized decision task involves Bayesian assessments...

We examine the dynamic effects of housing demand shocks on a large set of U.S. macroeconomic series and detailed household balance sheet components for four wealth percentile groups. The results show that a positive housing shock translates into a large and persistent boom of economic activity,...