In the Bayesian online selection problem, the goal is to design a pricing scheme for a sequence of arriving buyers that maximizes the expected social-welfare (or revenue) subject to different types of structural constraints. Inspired by applications in operations management, the focus of this...

We investigate the optimal Bayesian dynamic pricing and demand learning policy over short selling horizons, where the pricing decisions are time-sensitive. The seller fine-tunes the price near an incumbent price in order to maximize the total revenue. The existing literature focuses on policies...

We develop a novel framework using Bayesian networks to capture distress dependence in the context of counterparty credit risk. This allows us to calibrate the probability of distress of an entity conditional on the distress of a different entity. We apply our methodology to wrong-way risk model...

Growing problem of card payment fraudulent abuse is a main focus of banks and payment Service Providers (PSPs). This study is using naive Bayes, C4.5 decision tree and bagging ensemble machine learning algorithms to predict outcome of regular and fraud transactions. Performance of algorithms is...

A black-box optimization problem is considered, in which the function to be optimized can only be expressed in terms of a complicated stochastic algorithm that takes a long time to evaluate. The value returned is required to be sufficiently near to a target value, and uses data that has a...

A rapidly growing body of research has examined tail risks in macroeconomic outcomes. Most of this work has focused on the risks of significant declines in GDP, and it has relied on quantile regression methods to estimate tail risks. Although much of this work discusses asymmetries in...