We study how changes to the informativeness of signals in Bayesian games and single-agent decision problems affect the distribution of equilibrium actions. A more precise private signal about an unknown state of the world leads to an mean-preserving spread of an agent's beliefs. Focusing on...

We develop a new framework for designing online policies given access to an oracle providing statistical information about an offline benchmark. Having access to such prediction oracles enables simple and natural Bayesian selection policies, and raises the question as to how these policies...

Many important economic situations can be modeled as dynamic games of incomplete information with strategic complementarities of actions and types. In this paper, we extend the results of Athey (2001) and Reny (2011) from static Bayesian games to dynamic environments, providing conditions that...

We study the relationship between two-agent implementation problems and the notionof interim efficiency due to Holmström and Myerson (1983) in Bayesian environmentswith private values and independent types. We present a general property, Bayesianefficiency, and show that it is sufficient for...

Change point models using hierarchical priors share in the information of each regime when estimating the parameter values of a regime. Because of this sharing, hierarchical priors have been very successful when estimating the parameter values of short-lived regimes and predicting the...

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility with piecewise constant realisations on bins forming a...

Current understanding holds that financial contagion is driven mainly by system-wide interconnectedness of institutions. A distinction has been made between systematic and idiosyncratic channels of contagion, with shocks transmitted through the latter expected to be substantially more likely to...

This paper aims to investigate the main determinants of Tunisian bank stability. To achieve this goal; we have used a dataset of ten (10) Tunisian banks during the period 1990-2015. These banks are the most dynamic and the most involved in the financing of the economy. The econometric strategy...

Quantitative investment strategies are often selected from a broad class of candidate models estimated and tested on historical data. Standard statistical technique to prevent model overfitting such as out-sample back-testing turns out to be unreliable in the situation when selection is based on...

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate...