We use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to draw model coefficients to generate LGD distributions. We find that applying this Bayesian method on a sophisticated model that accounts for the bi-modal distribution of the LGDs, such as the zero-one-inflated beta (ZOIB) model, can generate LGD...

In this paper we propose efficient Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for estimation of systemic risk measures, LRMES, SRISK and ΔCoVaR, and apply it for thirty global systemically important banks and for eighteen largest US financial institutions over the period of 2000-2020. The systemic...

Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional mean models provide only limited evidence to investigate...

We propose efficient Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for estimation of systemic risk measures, LRMES, SRISK and ∆CoVaR, and apply it for thirty global systemically important banks and for eighteen largest US financial institutions over the period of 2000-2020. The advantage of the...

What drives income inequality in emerging market economies? To end it, we approach this topic utilizing Bayesian model averaging and 27 emerging market economies panel dataset from 1990 to 2019. First, differently, we find a U-shaped Kuznets curve in emerging market economies rather than the...

In this paper, we study hierarchical Bayes (HB) estimators based on different priors for small area estimation. In particular, we use inverse gamma and flat priors for variance components in the HB small area models of You and Chapman (2006) and You (2021). We evaluate the HB estimators through...

Classic value investing à la Graham & Dodd (1934) focuses on selecting stocks that seem cheap relative to their intrinsic value and fundamental quality. We use Bayesian inference to account for the large amount of uncertainty within intrinsic value estimation. We find that an...

While demand models require a sound understanding of economic processes and should be flexible enough to capture nonlinearities, endogeneity can greatly hinder the identification of (nonlinear) causal relationships. To tackle these issues, we extend the instrument-free Gaussian copula approach...