Karni and Vierø (2013) propose a model of belief revision under growing awareness- reverse Bayesianism- which posits that as a person becomes aware of new acts, conse- quences, or act-consequence links, she revises her beliefs over an expanded state space in a way that preserves the relative...

This paper provides a micro-foundation for approximate incentive compatibility using ambiguity aversion. In particular, we propose a novel notion of approximate interim incentive compatibility, approximate local incentive compatibility, and establish an equivalence between approximate local...

We develop estimation methods for Bayesian models where the covariance matrix has a block structure. A block covariance matrix partitions the data into groups or blocks; variances and covariances are equal within blocks while covariances are equal across blocks. We derive the posterior and...

This paper uses a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both...

In today's online advertising markets, it is common for an advertiser to set a long-period budget. Correspondingly, advertising platforms adopt budget control methods to ensure that any advertiser's payment is within her budget. Most budget control methods rely on value distributions of...

Why does misinformation persist, and how does it distort the long-run beliefs and actions of rational agents? We study a model where receivers see an infinite stream of messages from a sender of unknown type who observes private signals about an unknown state of the world. We characterize the...

We investigate a quantitative Aumann's Agreement Theorem and provide a generalization of the characterization in Arieli et al. (2021) from binary state spaces to arbitrary finite state spaces. Using a network flow approach, we show that the cut condition for a feasible multiflow problem gives...

Discrete mixture (DM) models recognize the presence of heterogeneity across individuals in a given population. In the context of a public land use discrete choice experiment, we use DM models to allow for respondent behavior to probabilistically mix over multiple competing decision paradigms. We...

Banking-system shutdowns during contractions scar economies. Four times in the last forty years, governors suspended payments from state-insured depository institutions. Suspensions of payments in Nebraska (1983), Ohio (1985), and Maryland (1985), which were short and occurred during expansions,...

We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing ‘narrative restrictions’ (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock...