We examine spatially correlated interregional flows measured as binary choice outcomes. Since the dependent variable is not only binary and dyadic, but also spatially correlated, we propose a spatial origin-destination probit model and a Bayesian estimation methodology that avoids inconsistent...

Is predicting the international community’s cumulative response to an interstate dispute possible? Can we predict what form conflict management will take and how it will evolve over the course of a dispute? I employ the concept of a conflict management trajectory to test a forecasting...

Efforts to resolve interstate disputes are often characterized by repeated engagement and evolving strategies. What explains a state’s decision to continue conflict resolution efforts but escalate their management strategy? Drawing from foreign policy literature, I argue that third...

A growing body of applied research on political violence employs split-population models to address problems of zero inflation in conflict event counts and related binary dependent variables. Nevertheless, conflict researchers typically use standard ordered probit models to study discrete...

In this study, we evaluate the effects of alliance behavior on the probability of militarized conflict initiation with specific emphasis placed on the issues at stake in the conflict. After much debate over the relationship between alliances and conflict, recent research suggests that specific...

We examine spatially correlated interregional flows measured as binary choice outcomes. Since the dependent variable is not only binary and dyadic, but also spatially correlated, we propose a spatial origin–destination probit model and a Bayesian estimation methodology that avoids inconsistent...

Does involvement in territorial conflict affect domestic repression? I argue that seeking to revise territory abroad will affect domestic repression, but conditionally on regime type and conflict severity. For democracies, there may be public pressure to deliver the good of territory. Because of...