We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data....

We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data....

I consider continuous time asset pricing models with stochastic differential utilityincorporating decision makers' concern with ambiguity on true probability measure.In order to identify and estimate key parameters in the models, I use a novel econometricmethodology developed recently by Park...