We derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in Markov-switching vector autoregressive models and also show under which conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov process. Based on Bayesian approach to evaluating the hypotheses, the computational tools for...

Abstract Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model...