vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model with data from 1995 M01 to 2021 M07. We accounted for 2008/2009 global financial … crisis (GFC), the 2016 economic recession and the 2019/2020 coronavirus pandemic in the model. The results indicate that oil …

for the rest of the world's behaviour to be treated as exogenous, so we test the UK model with this held constant; the … other countries/blocs are large so we test their model by a `part of model' test in which the other world variables are … simulated by a reduced form VAR of the unknown true world model.. We show by Monte Carlo experiments that these tests have high …