The first part of this paper briefly summarizes the assumptions of economic theory on the relationships between exchange rates, prices and interest rates and the same time compares these assumptions with the empirical evidence. The fact that there exist strong discrepancies, which in recent...

The Frenkel-Bilson and Dornbusch-Frankel monetary exchange rate models are used to estimate the out-of sample forecasting performance for the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the...

The Dornbusch-Frankel monetary model is used to estimate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for the U.S. or Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals....

This paper proposes a new test for the asset pricing model of the exchange rate. It examines whether the way market analysts generate their forecasts is closer to the one implied by the asset pricing model, or to any of those implied by some alternative models. The asset pricing model is...

This paper proposes a new test for the asset pricing model of the exchange rate. It examines whether the way market analysts generate their forecasts is closer to the one implied by the asset pricing model, or to any of those implied by some alternative models. The asset pricing model is...

This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate regime on the current account adjustment process. In a first step, the present analysis assesses previous empirical work supporting the predominant view that more flexible exchange rate regimes facilitate current account adjustments. Using...

We analyze the contribution of speculation to exchange rate volatility using different assumptions regarding speculation strategies and monetary policy rules. We take the DORNBUSCH (1976) model as the starting point and adopt a slight modification of the money demand specification. With a money...

This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their...

This paper emphasizes the distinction between two ‘monetary approaches to the balance of payments’, one developed in the IMF, the other under the leadership of Harry Johnson in Chicago. The IMF approach is presented as an evolutionary development of the Kahn/Keynes multiplier model in an...