Search Results - subject:"Monetary Model"

Berger, Helge; Harjes, Thomas; Stavrev, Emil - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599686

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflationtargeting in South Africa

Harjes, Thomas; Ricci, Luca Antonio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within an inflation targeting framework, by incorporating forward-looking behavior of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604893

Monetary exchange rate model: supportive evidence from nonlinear testing procedures

Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi; … - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

Using nonlinear testing procedures relevant to the recent literature, this study provides evidence of nonlinear adjustment of nominal exchange rate towards monetary fundamentals in the context of ASEAN-5 countries. While it supports earlier findings supportive of monetary exchange rate model in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005619526

Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs

Österholm, Pär; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826627

The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars

Österholm, Pär; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264231

A monetary model of TL/US$ exchange rate: a co-integrating approach

Levent, Korap - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

quarterly observations. Following the monetary model exchange rate determination based on the economic fundamentals, the … the determination of nominal exchange rate for the Turkish economy. Our findings give strong support to the monetary model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596379

Islamic Republic of Iran; Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244775

The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?

Moosa, Imad; Burns, Kelly - In: Journal of Macroeconomics 40 (2014) C, pp. 69-81

It is demonstrated that the conventional monetary model of exchange rates can (irrespective of the specification …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010777112

Money demand instability and real exchange rate persistence in the monetary model of USD–JPY exchange rate

Hunter, John; Menla Ali, Faek - In: Economic Modelling 40 (2014) C, pp. 42-51

This paper proposes a hybrid monetary model of the dollar–yen exchange rate that takes into account factors affecting … the conventional monetary model's building blocks. In particular, the hybrid monetary model is based on the incorporation …-run relation to explain the dollar–yen exchange rate as opposed to the conventional monetary model. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010781957