Iceland’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that new projects have rekindled rapid growth and the economy is exhibiting signs of overheating, with imbalances evident in inflation, the current account, and external debt. GDP grew at an average rate of 3.8 percent between 1995 and 2004,...

This paper surveys decision-making roles of governing bodies of central banks that have formally adopted inflation targeting as a monetary framework. Governance practices seek to balance institutional independence needed for monetary policy credibility with accountability required to protect...

Empirical studies of money continue to use the Federal Reserve's official simple sum indexes, apparently in the belief that their behavior differs little from patterns exhibited by superlative indexes of money. This paper illustrates specific periods when this assumption is refuted and offers...

Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. As Stock and Watson (2003) find, some financial variables work well in some countries or over some time periods and forecast horizons, but the results...

The most salient trend in monetary policy over the past two decades has been increasing reliance on money market operations, which reflects the belief that allowing market forces to allocate financial resources brings about increased economic efficiency and growth. However, small economies and...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mongolia’s overall economic performance was stronger than expected and broad based in 2004 and early 2005. Sectoral contributions to high growth included a rebound in the livestock sector from harsh winter shocks of 2000–01 and...

This paper revisits the usefulness of econometric monetary analysis in low-income countries in a case study on Rwanda, an interesting case given its floating exchange rate and reliance on indirect monetary policy instruments on the one hand, and its somewhat typical data and institutional...

On 18-19 June 2004, the BIS held a conference on "Understanding Low Inflation and Deflation". This event brought together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to exchange views on this issue (see the conference programme in this document). This paper was presented at the workshop....