Damped trend exponential smoothing has previously been established as an important forecasting method. Here, it is shown to have close links to simple exponential smoothing with a smoothed error tracking signal. A special case of damped trend exponential smoothing emerges from our analysis, one...

Forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance are, potentially, informative as to the stance of future fiscal policies. This is sustained by the fiscal surveillance procedure for Eurozone members since the reformed Stability and Growth Pact of 2005. However, the quality of...

We examine the relationship between security analyst turnover and the relative accuracy of their annual earnings and cash flow forecasts. Controlling for self-selection in an analyst’s decision to issue a cash flow forecast, we find that relatively more accurate earnings and cash flow...