R2 and adjusted R2 may exaggerate a model's true ability to predict the dependent variable in the presence of overfitting, whereas leave-one-out R2 (LOOR2) is robust to overfitting. We demonstrate this by replicating 279 regressions from 100 papers in top economics journals, where the median...

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using...

Innovations in statistical methodology is often accompanied by Monte-Carlo studies. In the context of survey statistics two types of inferences have to be considered. First, the classical randomization methods used for developments in statistical modelling. Second, survey data is typically...

Interest in evaluating the effects of continuous treatments has been on the rise recently. To facilitate the estimation of causal effects in this setting, the present paper introduces entropy balancing for continuous treatments (EBCT) by extending the original entropy balancing methodology of...

SimDec is a revolution in decision-making support. SimDec "teases out" inherent cause-and-effect relationships and reveals the intricacy of relationships between sets of input and output variables. At its core, SimDec is an amalgamation of uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis with an...