We develop new multi-factor dynamic copula models with time-varying factor loadings and observation-driven dynamics. The new models are highly flexible, scalable to high dimensions, and ensure positivity of covariance and correlation matrices. A closed-form likelihood expression allows for...

We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, with detailed application in the topical and challenging context of...

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation...

Statistikoje ir jos taikyme vienas dažniausiai sprendžiamų uždavinių yra daugiamačių tankių vertinimas.Tankių vertinimas skirstomas į parametrinį ir neparametrinį vertinimą. Parametriniame vertinime daroma prielaida, kad tankio funkcija f, apibūdinanti duomenis yi, kai i kinta nuo...