In this paper I assess the ability of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of different size to forecast comovements of major macroeconomic series in the euro area. Both approaches are compared to unrestricted VARs in terms of...

This paper argues that VAR models with cointegration and common cycles can be usefully viewed as observable factor models. The factors are linear combinations of lagged levels and lagged differences, and as such, these observable factors have potential for forecasting. We illustrate this...

We specify the Pitman-closeness criterion for the evaluation of multivariate forecasts in three categories. This is done closely to the definition of covariance adjustment techniques analysed in other articles. We also apply the Pitman-closeness techniques to an example dealing with German...

We specify the Pitman-closeness criterion for the evaluation of multivariate forecasts in three categories. This is done closely to the definition of covariance adjustment techniques analysed in other articles. We also apply the Pitman-closeness techniques to an example dealing with German...