Sequential bifurcation (or SB) is an efficient and effective factor-screening method; i.e., SB quickly identifies the important factors (inputs) in experiments with simulation models that have very many factors — provided the SB assumptions are valid. The specific SB assumptions are: (i) a...

This paper presents a simple and fast maximum likelihood estimation method for nonlinear DSGE models that are solved using a second- (or higher-) order accurate approximation. The method requires that the number of observables equals the number of exogenous shocks. Exogenous innovations are...

Due to the fact that oil prices had a falling outlook after the global crisis, modeling oil market prices has been a topic of interest among researchers. The goals of this study are to investigate the recession or growth periods of oil futures markets using Markov switching autoregressive...

We analyse an extended version of the dynamical mean-field Ising model. Instead of classical physical representation of spins and external magnetic field, the model describes traders' opinion dynamics. The external field is endogenised to represent a smoothed moving average of the past state...

Goodwin's model is a set of ordinary differential equations and is a well-known model of the growth cycle. However, its four constants require an extensive numerical study of its two differential equations to identify all possible unsteady state behaviors, i.e. phase portraits, which corresponds...

We analyse the behaviour of a non-linear model of coupled stock and bond prices exhibiting periodically collapsing bubbles. By using the formalism of dynamical system theory, we explain what drives the bubbles and how foreshocks or aftershocks are generated. A dynamical phase space...

After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...