This paper investigates the nonlinearity in the effects of news shocks about technological innovations. In a maximally flexible logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model, state-dependent effects of news shocks are identified based on medium-run restrictions. We propose a novel...

Market efficiency has been analyzed through many studies using different linear methods. However, studies on financial econometrics reveal that financial time series exhibit nonlinear patterns because of various reasons. This paper examines market efficiency at Borsa Istanbul using a smooth...

A correlation curve is introduced as a tool to study the degree of intergenerational income mobility, i.e. how income status is related between parents and adult child. The method overcomes the shortcomings of the elasticity of children’s income with respect to parents’ income (i.e. its...

This note serves as a hands-on supplement to: Viole, F. and Nawrocki, D. (2012), "Deriving Nonlinear Correlation Coefficients from Partial Moments" "https://ssrn.com/abstract=2148522" https://ssrn.com/abstract=2148522

This paper analyses to what extent a selection of leading indicators is able to forecast U.S. recessions, by means of both dynamic probit models and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models, using monthly data from January 1871 to June 2016. The results suggest that the probit models predict U.S....

Over the last two decades the intensity of credit standards' tightening during economic contractions has exceeded their easing during expansions among euro area banks. This mechanism is fed by the boom-bust cycle of credit that, as much research has shown, is linked to financial instability with...

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive coefficient depending on the first lagged value of the process itself. We call such a model...

This paper examines persistence, structural breaks and non-linearities in the case of five European stock market indices, namely the FTSE100 (UK), DAX30 (Germany), CAC40 (France), IBEX35 (Spain) and FTSE MIB40 (Italy), using fractional integration methods. The empirical results provide no...

The methodology presented provides a quantitative way to characterize investor behavior and price dynamics within a particular asset class and time period. The methodology is applied to a data set consisting of over 250,000 data points of the S&P 100 stocks during 2004-2018. Using a two-way...

We propose a framework to solve non-linear DSGE models combining approximation and estimation techniques. Instead of relying on a fixed grid, we use Monte Carlo methods to draw samples from the state space, which are used to estimate an approximation for the value or policy functions of...