We develop a non-dynamic panel smooth transition regression model with fixed individual effects. The model is useful for describing heterogenous panels, with regression coefficients that vary across individuals and over time. Heterogeneity is allowed for by assuming that these coefficients are...

In this paper we examine the forecast accuracy of linear autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and neural network (NN) time series models for 47 monthly macroeconomic variables of the G7 economies. Unlike previous studies that typically consider multiple but fixed model...

In this paper we examine the forecast accuracy of linear autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and neural network (NN) time series models for 47 monthly macroeconomic variables of the G7 economies. Unlike previous studies that typically consider multiple but fixed model...

This article proposes a new class of nonlinear time series models in which one of the coefficients of an existing regression model is frequency dependent—that is, the relationship between the dependent variable and this explanatory variable varies across its frequency components. We show that...

This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCH where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation, the conditional variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while in a second formulation, small and big shocks...

The topic of this chapter is forecasting with nonlinear models. First, a number of well-known nonlinear models are introduced and their properties discussed. These include the smooth transition regression model, the switching regression model whose univariate counterpart is called threshold...

In this paper we use Monte Carlo testing techniques for testing linearity against the smooth transition models. The Monte Carlo approach allows us to introduce a new test that differs from the tests existing in the literature in two respects. First, the test is exact in the sense that the...

The current account - interest rate relationship has been extensively investigated, but always assuming that it is linear. In this paper we examine the linearity versus nonlinearity issue with reference to this relationship in 11 OECD countries, and find overwhelming evidence in favour of...

Research into time series models of changing variance and covariance, which is often called volatility model, has exploded in the last 10 years. Financial series are characterized by periods of large volatility followed by periods of relative quietness. This type of clustering led to the idea...