In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from...

Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for...

We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as structural breaks and thresholds, in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models and apply our modeling framework to series of daily realized volatility. Asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum...

The model is one theoretical approach within a broader research program that could verify the nonlinear conjectures made to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments,...

Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for...

This paper analyzes the properties of standard estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS's) for parameters that are unidentified or weakly identified in some parts of the parameter space. The paper also introduces methods to make the tests and CS's robust to such identification problems. The...

In this paper we analyze a basic sticky price model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness à la Calvo. Starting by the relations describing a general economic equilibrium model (see Woodford in Interest and Prices, Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, The MIT Press, 2003), as...

This paper presents a model for the heterogeneity and dynamics of the conditional mean and the conditional variance of standardized individual wages. In particular, a heteroskedastic autoregressive model with multiple individual fixed effects is proposed. The expression for a modified likelihood...