The TSpVARX model can be used in inflation and money outflow forecasting by accommodating the reciprocal relationship among endogenous variables, the influence of exogenous variables, inter-regional linkages, and the nonlinearity of the relationship between endogenous and predetermined...

This article presents theoretical foundations for original Phillips curve formulation and an empirical investigation, where the structure of the theoretical model serves as a template for the creation of the empirical model. For a couple of decades the majority of empirical Phillips curve type...

We develop a regime switching vector autoregression where artificial neural networks drive time variation in the coefficients of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables and the variance covariance matrix of the disturbances. The model is equipped with a stability constraint to ensure...

Many global shocks, including the renegotiation of NAFTA, the United States-China trade war, the Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic, may have recently influenced the inflation spillover in the G7 countries. The current literature overlooks the influence of these important events on the inflation...