This article faces the problem of stock price forecasting based on an integrated approach in which the modeling of high frequency financial data (duration, volume and bid-ask spread) uses a contemporaneous ordered probit model – the price changes (measured in numbers of ticks) are the...

The paper considers the question of dominance, in the context of financial markets, of the deterministic unit root processes with a structural break by the bilinear unit root model without such break or vice versa. In the deterministic unit root process breaks are usually interpreted as...

In this paper, we study the problem of a variety of nonlinear threshold autoregressive model X n +1 =ϕ(X n )+ɛ n +1 (Z n +1 ) in which {Z n } is a Markov chain with finite state space, and for every state i of the Markov chain, {ɛ n (i)} is a sequence of independent and identically...

We investigate the finite-sample performance of model selection criteria for local linear regression by simulation. Similarly to linear regression, the penalization term depends on the number of parameters of the model. In the context of nonparametric regression, we use a suitable quantity to...

It is well documented that daily returns of several financial assets cannot be modelled by pure linear processes. It seems to be generally accepted that many economic variables follow nonlinear processes. The sources of nonlinearity can be divided in two classes: those where nonlinearities stem...

In the present paper we consider the general class of first-order nonlinear models. The main contributions concern primerly a generalization of the conditions for geometric ergodicity presented in Ferrante et al. (2003). The obtained result is then applied to two classes of first-order nonlinear...

In this paper, we test whether a regime shift from expansion to recession and vice versa is, ceteris paribus, equally likely throughout the year. If not, then it may, for instance, be less likely to get out of a recession in the middle of the winter than it is, say, in the spring or summer. We...