This study aimed to forecast stock prices and daily stock returns of food products manufacturers, accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange, Using evolutionary strategies. The study was divided into two models. First, the time series of 14 variables related to price prediction, for a period of 5 years...

This paper introduces a new model called the buffered autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BAR-GARCH). The proposed model, as an extension of the BAR model in Li et al. (2013), can capture the buffering phenomenon of time series in both conditional...

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a number of rank-based and classical residual specification tests in AR-GARCH type models. We consider tests for the null hypotheses of no linear and quadratic serial residual autocorrelation, residual symmetry, and no structural breaks. For...

In this paper, we derive Lagrange multiplier and Lagrange multiplier type specification and misspecification tests for vector smooth transition models. We report results from simulation studies in which the size and power properties of the proposed tests in small samples are considered. The...

Multi-step forecasts can be produced recursively by iterating a one-step model, or directly using a specific model for each horizon. Choosing between these two strategies is not an easy task since it involves a trade-off between bias and estimation variance over the forecast horizon. Using a...

This paper re-examines the relation between private economic performance and federal government size in Canada over the long 1870-2011 time period. The particular focus is on whether the effect of government size on private output has an inverted U shape with a tipping point. Its innovation is...

In this paper, we derive Lagrange multiplier and Lagrange multiplier type specification and misspecification tests for vector smooth transition models. We report results from simulation studies in which the size and power properties of the proposed tests in small samples are considered. The...

This paper asks whether comprehensive, non-interest government size has an inverted Ushaped effect on private economic output in Canada and whether its current size is too large relative to the estimated tipping point. Using data from 1929 through 2011 and controlling for both correlations...

Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive...