In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A major aim of our study is to find out whether they, due to their flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as...

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition...

In this article, we propose a test for the additivity of a nonlinear conditionally heteroscedastic autoregressive model. The test is based on the unequal variance unbalanced design ANOVA scheme. An asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived and the test performance in finite...

Recent research has generated support of the notion that the real exchange rate adjustment is nonlinear and that the PPP half-life is faster than the puzzling 3 to 5 years based on linear models. While different nonlinear models survive the specification tests against linear ones, there is...