We show that the cusp catastrophe model explains the crash of stock exchanges much better than other models. On the data of U.S. stock markets we demonstrate that the crash of 1987 may be better explained by cusp catastrophe theory, which is not true for the crash of 2001. With the help of...

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids. The Smolyak operator underlying the sparse grids approach frees global approximation from the curse of dimensionality and we apply it to a Chebyshev approximation of the...

Against the backdrop of over two hundred thousand people dead or missing and millions of people homeless after China's massive earthquake and Myanmar devastating cyclone, forecasts estimate that natural and man-made disasters are likely to increase five-fold both in number and impact over the...

One of the most fundamental principles in system dynamics is the premise that the structure of the system will generate its behavior. Such philosophical position has fostered the development of a number of formal methods aimed at understanding the causes of model behavior. To most in the field...

The use of nonlinear dynamic models in economics and finance has expanded rapidly in the last two decades. Numerical simulation is crucial in the investigation of nonlinear systems. E&F Chaos is an easy-to-use and freely available software package for simulation of nonlinear dynamic models to...

We investigate the price dynamics of large market-capitalization U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in order to uncover trader motivations and strategy. We show that prices of highly liquid ETFs can deviate significantly from their daily net asset values. By adjusting for changes in...

The paper studies the effects of credible disinflation in the presence of real wage rigidity, comparing the Calvo and Rotemberg price setting mechanisms (the two popular variants of the New-Keynesian model). In both types of models, a credible, gradual disinflation is shown to lead to a delayed...

A test of the joint null hypothesis of parameter stability and a unit root within an ADF style autoregressive specification whose entire parameter structure is potentially subject to a structural break at an unknown time period is developed. The proposed test is a useful diagnostic tool for...

We develop a multivariate dynamic term structure model, which takes into account the nonlinear (time-varying) relation between interest rates and the state of the economy. In contrast to the classical term structure literature, in which nonlinearities are captured by increasing the number of...

This study analyses the dynamics of a two-dimensional overlapping generations economy with endogenous labour supply à la Reichlin (J Econ Theory 40(1):89–102, <CitationRef CitationID="CR52">1986</CitationRef>) and aspirations. We show that the degree of nonlinearity of consumption externality in individual utility is responsible for the...</citationref>