In this paper I consider a model for the heterogeneity and dynamics of the conditional mean and the conditional variance of standarized individual wages. In particular, I propose a dynamic panel data model with individual effects both in the mean and in a conditional ARCH type variance function....

The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the stability of a stochastic dynamic system is measured using the Lyapunov exponents. Specifically, we use a feedforward neural network to estimate these exponents as well as asymptotic results for this estimator to test for unstable (chaotic)...

This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We establish sufficient conditions for identification of the structural shocks and the associated impulse-response functions. In particular, we argue that, if the data follow an approximate factor...

The core-periphery model by Krugman (1991) has two 'dramatic' implications: catastrophic agglomeration and locational hysteresis. We study this seminal model with CES instead of Cobb-Douglas upper tier preferences. This small generalization suffices to change these stark implications. For a wide...

This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We establish sufficient conditions for identification of the structural shocks and the associated impulse-response functions. In particular, we argue that, if the data follow an approximate factor...

The Gibson paradox,long observed by economists and named by John Maynard Keynes (1936),is a positive relationship between the interest rate and the price level. This paper explains the relationship by means of interest-rate, cost-push inflation.In the mode,spending is driven in part by changes...

This article explores nonlinearities in the response of speculators' trading activity to price changes in live cattle, corn, and lean hog futures markets. Analyzing weekly data from March 4, 1997 to December 27, 2005, we reject linearity in all of these markets. Using smooth transition...