The paper considers the task of selecting a flexible nonlinear model which can be used as a baseline model. The baseline model may be used as a testing ground for more structural models which are congruent with economic theory. From the limited empirical evidence obtained here it is tentatively...

In statistical practice multicollinearity of predictor variables is rather the rule than the exception and appropriate models are needed to avoid instability of predictions. Feature extraction methods reflect the idea that latent variables not measurable directly are underlying the original...

In this paper we introduce the STAR-STGARCH model that can characterizenonlinear behaviour both in the conditional mean and the conditionalvariance. A modelling cycle for this family of models, consisting ofspecification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed.Misspecification tests...

Combined forecasts from a linear and a nonlinear model are investigated for time series with possibly nonlinear characteristics. The forecasts are combined by a constant coefficient regression method as well as a time varying method. The time varying method allows for a locally (non)linear...