We investigate predictive abilities of nonlinear models for stock returns when density forecasts are evaluated and compared instead of the conditional mean point forecasts. The aim of this paper is to show whether the in-sample evidence of strong nonlinearity in mean may be exploited for...

This paper examines the possibility of nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. It finds evidence of a significant structural break in the function that relates economic growth to inflation. The break is estimated to occur when the inflation rate is 8 percent. Below that rate,...

A stationary stochastic process is defined to be locally independent if it eventually becomes independent of pastrealizations. I develop a simple nonparametric test for this condition. Size and power comparisons favor this statistic over the one proposed by Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (1987)...