We show that expected returns on US stocks and all major global stock market indices have a particular form of non-linear dependence on previous returns. The expected sign of returns tends to reverse after large price movements and trends tend to continue after small movements. The observed...

This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...

We examine the largest cost component in offshore development projects, drilling rates, which have been high in recent years. To our knowledge, rig rates have not been analysed empirically before in the economic literature. Using econometric analysis, we examine the effects of gas and oil...

Many developed countries currently consider a move towards a universal child care program. The challenge in assessing the case for universal child care programs is that the evidence base is scarce. We analyze the staged expansion of subsidized, universally accessible child care in Norway. Our...

The paper presents a sparse grid approximation method based on the hyperbolic cross and applies it to solve non-linear macroeconomic models. We show how the standard hyperbolic cross can be extended to give greater control over the approximating grid and we discuss how to implement an...