Smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models, competitors of Markov-switching models, are limited by an assumed time-invariant threshold level. We augment the STAR model with a time-varying threshold that can be interpreted as a 'tipping level' where the mean and dynamics of the VAR shift....

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and...

Human mortality has been improving faster than expected over the past few decades. This unprecedented improvement has caused significant financial stress to pension plan sponsors and annuity providers. The widely recognized Lee-Carter model often assumes linearity in its period effect as an...

Most studies on the effects of debt on growth, particularly following the global financial crisis, have focused mainly on the advanced and emerging countries. Our focus on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) derives from the recent experience of slow growth at a time of rising debt in the sub-region. This...

This paper investigates the inflation-hedging ability of gold in Vietnam from 2011 to 2022. In order to assess how government management has affected the domestic gold market, two local gold prices (SJC and 9999) were employed. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) approach is...

We consider penalized extremum estimation of a high-dimensional, possibly nonlinear model that is sparse in the sense that most of its parameters are zero but some are not. We use the SCAD penalty function, which provides model selection consistent and oracle efficient estimates under suitable...